Current Price: $113,194
Change (24h): -2.55%
Recent High: $123,300
Recent Low: $98,115
Volume (24h): 221,948 BTC
Funding Rate: 0.0063%
Timeframe: 4H
RSI(14): 33.3 (near oversold)
Technical Breakdown
Trend Structure
- BTC peaked at $123,300 around July 11 and has since formed lower highs and lower lows, a bearish pattern.
- Price is currently below the midline of the Bollinger Bands, hugging the lower band, suggesting bearish pressure.
- The most recent candle shows a rejection near the mid-Bollinger, followed by a sharp sell-off.
Indicators
- Bollinger Bands (20,2):
- Price closed well below the middle band (116,769), currently testing the lower band (approx. 113,110).
- Suggests increased volatility and continuation of downward pressure.
- RSI (14):
- Reading at 33.3, close to oversold territory but not yet deeply oversold, allowing room for further decline.
- RSI is in a downtrend, indicating momentum favors sellers.
Reversal or Continuation?
- No bullish divergence or reversal candle pattern has formed yet.
- Price broke below key support (~$114,500), confirming bearish continuation.
- Next major support: Around $111,000, then $108,500.
Trade Signal
Signal Type: Short
Timeframe: 4H
Entry: $113,000–$113,300
Stop-Loss: Above $115,500 (mid-Bollinger + previous resistance)
Target 1: $111,000
Target 2: $108,500
Target 3 (extended): $105,000
Risk-Reward Ratio: Approx. 1:2.5 (Target 2)
Justification:
- Price has confirmed a break below Bollinger midline and key horizontal support.
- RSI and volume momentum both favor sellers.
- No bullish reversal signals have been observed; thus, continuation is more likely.
Trader’s Thought
If I were a trader here, I would lean short, given:
- Momentum is down.
- Key levels are breaking.
- RSI has not yet signaled reversal.
However, I would monitor closely for bullish divergence or a bounce from $111K. That would be the only scenario where I might re-evaluate for a short-term long opportunity.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This analysis is shared purely for educational purposes and should not be taken as financial advice. Always do your own research and evaluate the risks before entering any trade. We are not encouraging or motivating you to trade, and any decisions you make are entirely your responsibility. Trading involves risk, and we are not liable for any profits or losses that may occur as a result of your actions.
